Three Horizons Thinking

Food for Thought Tuesdays @ STREAT / 2020 (2 months) / Systems-led Design / Volunteer

The experiment

Thinking about the future means learning to think differently.

Emerging change will challenge our current assumptions, and over time today’s decisions, policies, and products will become obsolete. How can we futureproof our thinking and planning?

This session brought together the STREAT Executive on 25 February 2020 to use the Three Horizons Framework (3H) to think through their current state, and what they hoped for the future, to assist their strategic planning leading to 2040.

3H helps by asking people first to make their assumptions explicit, and then to explore emerging change as a way to reframe what they think, what they want, and what they do. The final step looks back at history, forward at the possibilities, and creates actions that bridge from today to tomorrow.

With thanks to Emma Blomkamp for co-facilitating this session.

Making assumptions and hopes for the future explicit

Using Kate Raworth’s introduction to the 3H Framework as a guide, over two hours we used the canvas to explore the bounds of Social and Environmental Innovation, plotting:

• Horizon 1 – current context and conditions; the focus is maintaining stability, and the mindset is that of the manager.

• Horizon 3 – transformative emerging changes, ideas about possible futures, and visions of preferred futures; the focus is on transformation and disruption, and the mindset is that of the visionary.

• Horizon 2 – actions taken in the present to resist change, to adapt to change, or to build on change; the focus is on creating and managing change, and the mindset is that of the entrepreneur.

We ended with a debrief on the experience of doing the activity, and discussed how the outcomes would be shared with other members of the Executive.

Taking the next step

The next steps for STREAT were to share session outcomes with their colleagues, and discuss, prioritise and formalise actions to be taken, considering:

• What current assumptions will be most challenged by change?

• Will any become obsolete in the face of the changes we’ve identified?

• What changes offer the most promise and immediately actionable opportunities?

• Which innovations or initiatives hold the most promise?